NHL ELO Posts

I have been quite busy with work and the holidays..but I will get back to them as soon as I get back from Christmas.

NHL Elo Ratings a/o 11/24/2011

With the holidays, I got a bit behind on getting my numbers figured up. But I finally got them finished up.

For this week, I have to say "Yah". Washington moved up to 11th, which is good seeing them moving in the right direction again.

This week's biggest winner goes to Florida. They moved up 49.66 points this week with their 3 victories against Pittsburgh, New Jersey and the NY Rangers. The flip side of that was Chicago's poor performance resulting in a loss of 55.51 points. Their defeats by Calgary, Edmonton and San Jose caused them to drop from 2nd to 16th in one week.

Honorable Mention goes to Columbus. They not only moved out of the last place slot where they have sat almost all season, they actually beat one of the teams that was in the Top 5 when they went up against Nashville.

Rank	Elo Rating	Team	Change from 11/17/2011
1	303.61	Minnesota	+29.81
2	302.80	Boston	+39.60
3	294.79	Florida	+49.66
4	273.34	Phoenix	+7.44
5	272.31	Pittsburgh	-6.18
6	271.31	NY Rangers	-36.54
7	271.19	Philadelphia	-17.19
8	265.90	San Jose	+17.50
9	265.14	St Louis	-0.30
10	262.88	Detroit	+42.67
11	253.48	Washington	+16.32
12	252.42	New Jersey	+12.20
13	248.92	Dallas	-1.63
14	243.80	Los Angeles	+0.17
15	239.02	Buffalo	-0.83
16	236.84	Chicago	-55.51
17	236.63	Montreal	+20.05
18	235.80	Nashville	-39.59
19	235.20	Edmonton	+20.10
20	232.66	Ottawa	-1.45
21	232.57	Vancouver	+30.13
22	230.44	Toronto	+13.06
23	206.76	Winnipeg	+22.19
24	204.40	Tampa Bay	-32.13
25	184.65	Carolina	+30.56
26	173.67	Calgary	-11.62
27	157.23	Columbus	+46.25
28	150.20	NY Islanders	-18.57
29	135.92	Anaheim	-23.32
30	134.10	Colorado	-31.97

Road to the ACC Championship - Finally at its destination

Coming into this week, Clemson has held the Atlantic Division slot for the last several week, but there has been a neck and neck fight over who would get to represent the Coastal Division in this championship.

After last night's game, all I can say is "wow". After an amazing blowout game from Virginia Tech over UVA with a score of 38-0, the ACC Championship has finally been set. Virginia Tech has finally clinched the Coastal Division slot.

So, for you fans out there, Clemson v. Virginia Tech will take place on December 3rd at 8pm Eastern

Road to the ACC Championships...drudges on

Wow... after UVA's win against Florida State... it is coming down to the wire as to who will be in the ACC Championship. For the Atlantic Division, Clemson had won that slot several weeks ago. But, for the Coastal Division, VT and UVA are still fighting it out. It has come down to one last game to determine who gets to go... and that is the traditional post-Thanksgiving game between VT and UVA.

So... for the ACC Championship...it is going to be Clemson versus the winner of the VT/UVA game. Let's go, Hokies!

NHL Elo Ratings a/o 11/17/2011

In continuing with the Elo ratings for the NHL, my personal favorite of Washington continues their decline from their once vaunted 1st place. The NY Rangers have actually taken the #1 slot for this week. For those of you familiar with the Elo system, the specifics I am using are Starting Value = 200, Floor = 0, K-value = 32(for ratings less than 2100), Results (1=win, 0=loss, 0.5=overtime/shootout loss).

Rank	Elo Rating	Team	Change from 11/11/2011
1	307.85	NY Rangers	+9.91
2	292.35	Chicago	+28.30
3	288.38	Philadelphia	+45.75
4	278.49	Pittsburgh	-13.91
5	275.39	Nashville	+30.26
6	273.80	Minnesota	+17.08
7	265.90	Phoenix	+15.11
8	265.44	St Louis	+51.46
9	263.20	Boston	+43.43
10	250.55	Dallas	-35.39
11	248.40	San Jose	-31.13
12	245.13	Florida	-16.40
13	243.63	Los Angeles	+45.96
14	240.22	New Jersey	+20.17
15	239.85	Buffalo	-20.39
16	237.16	Washington	-40.25
17	236.53	Tampa Bay	-18.37
18	234.11	Ottawa	+51.70
19	220.21	Detroit	-14.85
20	217.38	Toronto	-32.00
21	216.58	Montreal	+12.30
22	215.10	Edmonton	-31.87
23	202.44	Vancouver	+1.64
24	185.29	Calgary	+1.06
25	184.57	Winnipeg	+21.26
26	168.77	NY Islanders	-4.69
27	166.07	Colorado	-40.96
28	159.24	Anaheim	-24.80
29	154.09	Carolina	-3.96
30	110.98	Columbus	+15.57

Road to the 2011 ACC Championship

After today's game, it looks like the ACC Championship game is coming into focus.

For the Atlantic Division, Clemson's defeat of Wake Forest has given Clemson the playoff slot.

For the Coastal Division, the battle rages on between UVA and Virginia Tech. I am thinking VT should have it, but there is still the chance UVA could win the playoff slot. There are 2 scenario's left for which UVA might be able to get into the playoffs.

Scenario 1: If VT loses against UNC, UVA needs to beat VT AND win at least one other match between their Duke and Florida St games.

Scenario 2: If VT wins against UNC, UVA has to win all three matches between Duke, Florida St and Virginia Tech.

So, as of right now, I am casting my lot in the ACC Championship Game being between Clemson and VT, though that is not 100% set in stone yet.

------------------------
Update 1

After the UVA win today against Duke, it makes their chances a little bit easier. Their updated scenarios are below:

Scenario 1: If VT loses against UNC, UVA only needs to beat VT to go to the playoff.

Scenario 2: If VT wins against UNC, UVA needs to win both games against Florida State and VT to go to the playoffs.
-------------------------

NHL Elo Ratings a/o 11/11

Unfortunately after a couple of losses, my Washington Captitals have lost their 1st place rating, but at least they are still near the top. Below is the complete Elo rating list of the NHL as of 11/11/2011:

Rank	Score	Team
1	297.94	NY Rangers
2	292.40	Pittsburgh
3	285.94	Dallas
4	279.53	San Jose
5	277.41	Washington
6	264.05	Chicago
7	261.53	Florida
8	260.24	Buffalo
9	256.72	Minnesota
10	254.90	Tampa Bay
11	250.79	Phoenix
12	249.38	Toronto
13	246.97	Edmonton
14	245.13	Nashville
15	242.63	Philadelphia
16	235.06	Detroit
17	220.05	New Jersey
18	219.77	Boston
19	213.98	St Louis
20	207.03	Colorado
21	204.28	Montreal
22	200.80	Vancouver
23	197.67	Los Angeles
24	184.23	Calgary
25	184.04	Anaheim
26	182.41	Ottawa
27	173.46	NY Islanders
28	163.31	Winnipeg
29	158.05	Carolina
30	95.41	Columbus

NHL Elo Ratings - a/o Oct 26th

Continuing my Elo Ratings for NHL teams, I have updated their scores through October 26th. Below are the Top and Bottom 5 teams in the NHL.

Top 5
316.93 - Washington
268.29 - Pittsburgh
264.43 - Dallas
264.15 - Chicago
239.11 - Colorado

Bottom 5
127.77 - Columbus
142.84 - Winnipeg
163.28 - Montreal
173.58 - Boston
175.94 - Vancouver

Countdown to the 2011 ACC Championship

With December 3rd approaching fast, finally some headway has been made into who will not be playing in the ACC Championship Game. After this weekend's losses, both Boston College and University of Maryland have both secured their fates. The Atlantic Division is very close to figuring out who will be going, while the Coastal Division is completely still up in the air.

So, here is the list of teams still in contention for the ACC Championship Game:

Atlantic Division
Clemson
Florida State (on verge of elimination)
North Carolina State (on verge of elimination)
Wake Forest

Coastal Division
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami(FL)
North Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech

Rankings in the NHL

I have decided to try ranking NHL teams by using the Elo Rating System. It is a system that is very common in giving a rating to individuals competing in 2-person events like chess. I tried it with football a few years back, but it wasn't as successful as I was hoping since football has so few games per season. I figure the NHL plays enough games to get a good statistical sampling to more accurately rate teams.

I did use a variation of the Elo system though. All teams started the year at a score of 200 points. The K-Value I used is the traditional 32 points(for teams under 2100). The change I made though is that if a team loses in an overtime situation, they do not lose points for that game while the winning team still earns points.

So far, for the games up through 10/19/2011, here are my rankings:

Top 5
1. Washington (287.79)
2. Colorado (259.89)
3. Detroit (259.73)
4. Toronto (257.26)
5. Dallas (253.30)

Bottom 5
1. Columbus (129.40)
2. Ottawa (147.99)
3. Tampa Bay (168.18)
4. San Jose (168.88)
5. Montreal (169.44)

Rugby Pictures - Blacksburg v. Blackwater

Here are probably my last set of Blacksburg Rugby pictures for some time. Hope you like. Open up the article to see the whole collection.

Rugby Pictures - Blacksburg @ James River

This weekend was a challenge for photographing. It was raining and very overcast, but I did manage to snag a few really good pictures. Open up his article to view the full gallery.

Letters in World of Warcraft - Blood Oath of the Horde

There are many interesting books and letters you get that you can read within World of Warcraft. Some are silly, others are a nice short story summarizing past events. I found one called the "Blood Oath of the Horde".

Loktar' Ogar! Victory or Death!
It is these words that bind me to the Horde for they are the most sacred and fundamental of truths to any warrior of the Horde.

I give my flesh and blood freely to the Warchief. I am the instrument of my Warchief's desire. I am the weapon of my Warchief's command.

From this moment until the end of days, I live and die - For the Horde!

Endeavour's Last Journey

Photo by Robert Pearlman. Twitpic location http://twitpic.com/4yfylb

Today marks another milestone towards the end of NASA's shuttle mission. Endeavour took off today on its last journey into space. As a child, I was always fascinated by the shuttles and even wanted to become an astronaut. But I still remember to this day watching Columbia, the first shuttle, launching into space.

It is odd to think how every shuttle launch used to be on network TV. They would pre-empt shows and commercials to show the launches. Then around the time of the Challenger disaster, networks no longer seemed to air the launches, but the new cable channels like CNN would show them. But then over time, even they quit airing the launches. It fell to NASA TV and their internet site's streaming to show launches. I tried to watch them when I could, but after the Columbia shuttle disaster in 2003, I managed to only watch about 1 in 4 of the launches or landings.

It is a shame to see an outlet for tremendous amounts of scientific research going to the wayside with no replacement ready to take over. It is sad that we will have to start relying on the Russians to continue work on the International Space Station.

Rugby Pics - MARFU Div III semi-finals - Blacksburg v. Virginia

Here are the pictures from when Blacksburg played Virginia. Open up the article to view the full gallery.




The pictures can be found on my Picasaweb site at http://picasaweb.google.com/jpates

The sad part is this is probably my last set of pictures of the Blacksburg Rugby team. I will be moving next month to Richmond, and I do not think I will continue doing rugby photographs. Blacksburg was a team that I truly enjoyed. Even though I only played less than 2 seasons with them, they have always made me feel like a welcome addition to the team whether or not I was able to play. For this, I feel incredibly lucky to have known many great people from the team.

I do wish Blacksburg Rugby the best of luck in the upcoming seasons, and I may make it out when they play James River. I might have to dust off my camera for that.

Osama bin Laden dead

Just before I was about to go to bed on the 1st of May, 2011, a friend had pointed to a Wall Street Journal headline that said Osama bin Laden was dead. I could not find any reference anywhere else to back it up. Then about an hour later, NBC was airing President Obama's speech informing us that Osama bin Laden was indeed dead, killed in a firefight in Abbottadad, Pakistan and that his body is in US military custody.

Take a moment to remember the lives of Americans taken by Al-Qaeda during 9/11 and in the Middle East wars of Afghanistan and Iraq. Know that our lives will be forever different after those attacks. But take solace that the mastermind of such evil is now dead. And here is to those that have served in the military and those that serve now.

Quote to Ponder

Here is an interesting quote from the diary of President Rutherfd B. Hayes, 19th President of the United States.

"The real difficulty is with the vast wealth and power in the hands of the few and the unscrupulous who represent or control capital. Hundreds of laws of Congress and the state legislatures are in the interest of these men and against the interests of workingmen. These need to be exposed and repealed. All laws on corporations, on taxation, on trusts, wills, descent, and the like, need examination and extensive change. This is a government of the people, by the people, and for the people no longer. It is a government of corporations, by corporations, and for corporations. — How is this?". (Diary, March 11, 1888)

Topics in Cryptanalysis: Keyword Cipher

Recently, someone hit my blog looking for an encrypted selection of text. They were probably doing their homework and needed the answer. The text is as follows:

Eve intercepted another message this time from Bob to Alice. She knows they are still using a keyword cipher but they have once again changed their keyword. Use what you know about their messages and any CAP tools you need to find the keyword and the plaintext.

tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o


This actually comes from one of the early chapters from Richard Spillman's book Classical and Contemporary Cryptology. I actually liked that book, but unfortunately it has been out of print since 2004.

But here are the steps I went through to solve the problem.

Step 1: Knowing the cipher.
We know that Eve intercepted an encrypted message from Bob to Alice. We also know that the message is encrypted using a keyword cipher. This is a standard monoalphabetic encryption system. The ciphertext is transposed against the plaintext using a chosen keyword starting at a chosen postion, then fill in the remaining unused letters.

For this problem, we will use lowercase letters as the ciphertext and the uppercase letters as the plaintext.

Step 2: Create the inital cipher
Write out the plaintext letters from A to Z. Fill in the cipher text letters beneath it as they are determined.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z


Step 3: Frequency Analysis
Despite the fact that the letters have all been substituted and the word structure has been broken by the 5-letter word groups, the frequency of the letters of a monoalphabetic cipher will not change. Also, the most common letter used in text is the letter "E" with a frequency of about 12.77%, followed by "T" with about 8.55%, "O" at about 8.07%, "A" at about 7.78% and "N" with roughly 6.86%. These five letters are the high frequency letters. Also note that these values are approximates. These will vary from one group of text to the next, and it is possible for a non-high frequency letter to be in the top 5.

In our block of text, the letter "a" is the highest at 13.56%, "t" at 10.59%, "h" at 8.47%, "m" at 8.47% and "l" at 8.05%. So, I will make the assumption that a = E and t = T

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
_ _ _ _ a _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ t _ _ _ _ _ _

T____ _E_E_ T__T_ E____ T__T_ E___T ___T_ E__TE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

_____ ____T _E___ _____ TE___ _E_E_ _____ _____
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

__E__ ___T_ __T__ _ET__ E____ _____ ____E _E___
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_____ __E_T __T__ E____ _T__E _____ TT_E_ E___E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

__T_E _____ __E__ __T_T _E_E_ _E_T_ ___E_ ___TE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

_____ E_E__ __ET_ _____ ____T _E___ _____ _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o


Step 4: Common trigram.
The word THE is a very common trigram. In looking for spaces that currently have the values T_E, there are a few results.
tda - 4 occurrences
toa - 1 occurrence
twa - 1 occurrence.
So, I will assume that tda = THE... therefore d = H

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
_ _ _ _ a _ _ d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ t _ _ _ _ _ _

T____ _E_E_ T__TH E____ T__TH E___T H__TH E__TE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

_____ ____T _E___ _____ TE___ _E_E_ _____ H____
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

_HE__ ___T_ __T__ _ET__ E____ _____ ____E _E___
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_____ __E_T H_T_H E____ _T__E _____ TTHE_ E___E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

__T_E _____ __E__ __THT HE_E_ _E_T_ __HE_ ___TE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

_____ E_E_H __ET_ _____ ____T HE___ _____ _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o


Step 5: Remaining high frequency letters
We still have the letters of "h", "m" and "l" most likely corresponding to "O", "A" and "N" in no set order. Here I used a little deductive reasoning and knowledge of how the English language is structured to help figure out how I should set the next letters.
Looking through the encrypted text, we see that a "m" is corresponding to the 2nd letter of the encrypted text. The first plaintext letter is "T". This eliminates "N" since this is impossible. Also note that there are there is an occurrence of "mm" in the encrypted text. There is very little chance of it being "AA" since the letter "A" rarely follows itself. So, I will assume that m = O
Now, we still have "h" and "l" to map to "A" and "N". There are a lot of "ll" occurrences, so this should eliminate "A" as a choice leaving "N". So l = N. This leaves h = A.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h _ _ _ a _ _ d _ _ _ _ _ l m _ _ _ _ t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOA__ _E_EN TONTH E____ TO_TH E_ONT H_NTH EA_TE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

_NOON _ONOT _EA__ A__A_ TE_A_ _E_E_ _ON__ H__AN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

_HE_A NNOT_ ONT_N _ETO_ E_O__ ____A ____E _E___
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

___N_ A_E_T HAT_H E_ANN OT__E A_O_A TTHE_ E___E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

A_T_E _____ O_E__ __THT HE_E_ _E_T_ __HE_ ___TE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

_AN_N E_E_H A_ETO _O___ A_O_T HE_A_ A_N_O _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o


Step 6: Keyword Cipher exploit
We know when we use the keyword cipher, we pick a keyword and a starting location. We spell out the keyword using the first occurrence of each letter. Once the keyword is filled in, we follow it by the remaining letters in order until each plaintext letter has a ciphertext letter mapped to it.
If we look at our plaintext<->ciphertext mapping, we see that E F G H is corresponding to a _ _ d. So, we can probably assume that F and G will map to b and c respectively.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h _ _ _ a b c d _ _ _ _ _ l m _ _ _ _ t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOA__ _E_EN TONTH EF___ TOFTH E_ONT H_NTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

_NOON _ONOT _EAF_ A__AF TE_A_ _E_E_ _ON__ H__AN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

_HE_A NNOT_ ONT_N _ETO_ E_O__ ____A ____E _E___
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_F_N_ A_E_T HAT_H E_ANN OT__E A_O_A TTHE_ E___E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

A_T_E _____ O_E__ __THT HE_E_ FE_T_ __HE_ ___TE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

_AN_N E_E_H A_ETO _O___ A_O_T HE_AG A_N_O _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o


Step 7: Possible word found
In reviewing the text, there is a fairly long word. We see that at position 37, AFTE_NOON is mapping to hbtarlmml. So, I will assume that r = R

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h _ _ _ a b c d _ _ _ _ _ l m _ _ r _ t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOA__ _E_EN TONTH EF_R TOFTH E_ONT H_NTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON _ONOT _EAFR A__AF TERA_ _E_E_ _ON__ H__AN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

_HE_A NNOT_ ONT_N _ETO_ E_O__ ____A ___RE _E___
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_F_N_ A_E_T HAT_H E_ANN OT_RE A_ORA TTHE_ ER__E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

A_T_E _____ O_E__ __THT HE_ER FE_T_ __HER ___TE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

_AN_N E_ERH A_ETO _ORR_ A_O_T HERAG A_N_O _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o

Step 8: Keyword Cipher exploit
We now have another letter open for us to exploit. Notice that R S T corresponds to r _ t. So, s = S.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h _ _ _ a b c d _ _ _ _ _ l m _ _ r s t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOA__ _ESEN TONTH EF_RS TOFTH E_ONT H_NTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON _ONOT _EAFR A__AF TERA_ _E_E_ SON__ H__AN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

SHE_A NNOT_ ONT_N _ETO_ ESO__ ____A _S_RE _E___
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_F_N_ A_E_T HATSH E_ANN OT_RE A_ORA TTHE_ ER__E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

AST_E _____ O_E__ __THT HE_ER FE_T_ __HER S_STE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

_AN_N E_ERH A_ETO _ORR_ A_O_T HERAG A_N_O _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o

Step 9: Word found
Reading what we have so far, we see that atarting at position 8, there is SENTONTHEF_RST. I am going to assume that the blank letter is "I". So, f = I.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h _ _ _ a b c d f _ _ _ _ l m _ _ r s t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOA_I _ESEN TONTH EFIRS TOFTH E_ONT HINTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON _ONOT _EAFR AI_AF TERA_ _E_EI SON__ H__AN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

SHE_A NNOT_ ONTIN _ETO_ ESO__ ___IA _S_RE _E_I_
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_FIN_ A_E_T HATSH E_ANN OT_RE A_ORA TTHE_ ER__E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

AST_E _I___ O_E__ _ITHT HE_ER FE_T_ I_HER S_STE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

_AN_N E_ERH A_ETO _ORR_ A_O_T HERAG AIN_O _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o

Step 10: Word found
Starting at position 22, we have OFTHE_ONTH, I am assuming the blank is the letter M. So, k = M.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h _ _ _ a b c d f _ _ _ k l m _ _ r s t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOA_I _ESEN TONTH EFIRS TOFTH EMONT HINTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON _ONOT _EAFR AI_AF TERA_ _E_EI SON__ H_MAN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

SHE_A NNOT_ ONTIN _ETO_ ESO__ ___IA MS_RE _E_I_
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_FIN_ A_E_T HATSH E_ANN OT_RE A_ORA TTHE_ ER__E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

AST_E _I___ OME__ _ITHT HE_ER FE_T_ I_HER S_STE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

MAN_N E_ERH A_ETO _ORR_ A_O_T HERAG AIN_O _
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o

Step 11: Words found
Starting at Position 46, we have _ONOT_EAFRAI_. I am assuming the letters e = D and o = B.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h o _ e a b c d f _ _ _ k l m _ _ r s t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOA_I _ESEN TONTH EFIRS TOFTH EMONT HINTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON DONOT BEAFR AIDAF TERA_ _E_EI SON__ H_MAN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

SHE_A NNOT_ ONTIN _ETOB ESO__ ___IA MS_RE _E_I_
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

_FIND A_E_T HATSH E_ANN OTBRE A_ORA TTHE_ ER__E
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

AST_E _I___ OME__ _ITHT HE_ER FE_T_ I_HER S_STE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

MANDN E_ERH A_ETO _ORR_ ABO_T HERAG AINBO B
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o

Step 12: Keyword Cipher exploit
We see that we have I J K L M corresponding to f _ _ _ k. We know that "h" was already used, so this means the blanks are g i j.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h o _ e a b c d f g i j k l m _ _ r s t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOALI _ESEN TONTH EFIRS TOFTH EMONT HINTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON DONOT BEAFR AIDAF TERAL LE_EI SONL_ H_MAN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

SHE_A NNOT_ ONTIN _ETOB ESOL_ _K_IA MS_RE _E_IL
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

LFIND AKE_T HATSH E_ANN OTBRE AKORA TTHE_ ER_LE
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

AST_E _ILL_ OME__ _ITHT HE_ER FE_T_ I_HER S_STE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

MANDN E_ERH A_ETO _ORR_ ABO_T HERAG AINBO B
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o


Step 13: Word found
At position 1, we have TOALI_E. So, I am assuming p = C.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h o p e a b c d f g i j k l m _ _ r s t _ _ _ _ _ _

TOALI CESEN TONTH EFIRS TOFTH EMONT HINTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON DONOT BEAFR AIDAF TERAL LE_EI SONL_ H_MAN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

SHECA NNOTC ONTIN _ETOB ESOL_ CK_IA MS_RE _E_IL
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

LFIND AKE_T HATSH ECANN OTBRE AKORA TTHE_ ER_LE
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

AST_E _ILLC OME__ _ITHT HE_ER FECTC I_HER S_STE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

MANDN E_ERH A_ETO _ORR ABO_T HERAG AINBO B
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o

Step 14: Keyword Cipher exploit
We can now figure that P Q will map to n q (since o and p are already mapped) and U V W X Y Z will map to u v w x y z since these are the only letters remaining and the keyword cipher uses the remaining letters sequentially after the keyword is filled in.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
h o p e a b c d f g i j k l m n q r s t u v w x y z

TOALI CESEN TONTH EFIRS TOFTH EMONT HINTH EAFTE
tmhjf pasal tmltd abfrs tmbtd akmlt dfltd ahbta

RNOON DONOT BEAFR AIDAF TERAL LEVEI SONLY HUMAN
rlmml emlmt oahbr hfehb tarhj javaf smljy dukhl

SHECA NNOTC ONTIN UETOB ESOLU CKYIA MSURE WEWIL
sdaph llmtp mltfl uatmo asmju piyfh ksura wawfj

LFIND AKEYT HATSH ECANN OTBRE AKORA TTHEV ERYLE
jbfle hiayt dhtsd aphll mtora himrh ttdav aryja

ASTWE WILLC OMEUP WITHT HEPER FECTC IPHER SYSTE
hstwa wfjjp mkaun wftdt danar baptp fndar systa

MANDN EVERH AVETO WORRY ABOUT HERAG AINBO B
khlel avard hvatm wmrry homut darhc hflom o


So, our final message after all this work is(punctuation and spacing is assumed):
To Alice, sent on the first of the month in the afternoon. Do not be afraid. After all, Eve is only human. She cannot continue to be so lucky. I am sure we will find a key that she cannot break, or at the very least, we will come up with the perfect cipher system and never have to worry about her again. Bob.

Rugby Pictures - Blacksburg v. Winchester

Here are the pictures from the Blacksburg v. Winchester game that was on March 11th. Open the article to view the full gallery.

Topics in Computer Engineering - Floating Point Numbers(Single) conversion

In this post, I am going to talk about how to convert a base10 number into a single-precision floating point number. You may have used these if you have used variable types of Real, Single or Float.

The single-precision floating point number uses 32 bits to store the value of a number. The first bit is the sign, bits 2-9 represent the "127 bias" and bits 10-32 represent the significand. I will cover these terms and how they are used in the example.

Let's use the decimal (base10) number 1972.1130₁₀ in our example. The first step will be to convert this to a binary(base2) number. I will start by using the remainder method for the whole number portion and the multiplicative method for the fractional portion.

When using the remainder method on the whole number, you will divide the number by the base. The remainder will be the number to record starting from the least significant position. the whole number answer from the first problem now becomes the number that gets divided by the base for the next part. Repeat this until your answer is 0.

1972/2 = 986 r 0
986/2 = 493 r 0
493/2 = 246 r 1
246/2 = 123 r 0
123/2 = 61 r 1
61/2 = 30 r 1
30/2 = 15 r 0
15/2 = 7 r 1
7/2 = 3 r 1
3/2 = 1 r 1
1/2 = 0 r 1

Whole number portion = 11110110100₂

For the fractional number, take the decimal portion and multiply it by the base. Record the whole number portion. Eliminate the whole number portion from the number and multiply again and continue. You will want to continue until your fractional part becomes zero, or until the total number of digits in the whole number plus the fractional side is 24. Since the whole number has 11 digits, at most, we will have 13 digits for the fraction.

0.1130 x 2 = 0.226 0
0.226 x 2 = 0.452 0
0.452 x 2 = 0.904 0
0.904 x 2 = 1.808 1
0.808 x 2 = 1.616 1
0.616 x 2 = 1.232 1
0.232 x 2 = 0.464 0
0.464 x 2 = 0.928 0
0.928 x 2 = 1.856 1
0.856 x 2 = 1.712 1
0.712 x 2 = 1.424 1
0.424 x 2 = 0.848 0
0.848 x 2 = 1.696 1

The fractional portion is .0001110011101₂
Depending if you are rounding or not, this part will change a bit. If you are rounding and the fractional part of the last computed number is greater than .5, you will increase the last bit. Let us assume we will round...our new fractional part will be .0001110011110₂

Now, we have the number of 11110110100.0001110011110₂.

From here, we must get this into an exponential form with only a 1 in the whole number field. This is like using exponents in decimal. For instance, if you have the decimal number 123, that is also 1.23 x 10². To do this with a binary number will be the same as a decimal, except the "x 10ⁿ" will be "x 2ⁿ".

Our number is now represented as 1.11101101000001110011110 x 2¹⁰.

Now we can start filling in the fields of the single-precision floating point number.

The first bit represented the sign of the number. So, that bit is 0 for positive numbers and 1 for negative numbers.

Floating point value:
0

The next 8 bits represent the 127 bias. This is so you can represent either very large ("x 2¹²⁸")or very small numbers("x 2^-127"). These bits are the value of "bias = 127 + power". For this problem, the value to look at is the "x 2¹⁰". So, to figure the bias value, it will be 127 + 10 = 137.

Floating point value: (spaces are for viewing purposes only, it is actually one continuous number)
0 10001001

Now, to get the significand, it is everything that followed the decimal point in the binary number representation. The leading whole number 1 is assumed to be there and is not taking up space in the floating point number.

Floating point value:
0 10001001 11101101000001110011110

So, the value of 1972.1130₁₀ has the floating point representation of 01000100111101101000001110011110₂ or 44F6839E₁₆.

That concludes this post, but if you have any comments or questions, I will try to address them.

IT Support - Determining Hardware by ID

This was part of my old blog before it got wiped out, but it is something I think should make a repeat performance.

There are many times I am working on a computer and I see a "?" in the Device Manager and it says Unknown Device or something very generic like VGA Adapter. Items like that are very annoying. The way to fix this is a 2 part process. The first part is getting the hardware codes, the 2nd part is determining what they are.

Part 1 - Finding the hardware code.

• Right-click on the My Computer icon and select Manage
• Select Device Manager
• Right-click on the device in question and click Properties
• Select the Details tab
• Select Device Instance ID(Windows XP) or Hardware Ids(Windows 7) from the dropdown list
• Note the hexadecimal values after the VEN_ and DEV_

Part 2 - Determining the hardware

• Open Internet Explorer
• Go to www.pcidatabase.com
• Enter the value of the DEV_ in the Device Search field and click Search
• Review the results until you find the proper Vendor ID

By using these steps, you can figure out what an unknown device is and download the proper drivers for it.

Random thoughts from a conservative democrat

First off, I actually have considered myself as a Republican for a long time. I am a strong believer in a small government and fiscal responsibility. Unfortunately, since the 1980's on, the Democrats seem to be more in line with some of my viewpoints.

Abortion
I personally abhor the thought of abortion. And from some of the feelings I have heard from people who I have known that received one, it was not an easy choice. Many Neo-Cons(modern day Republicans) make it seem like women use abortion as a method of birth control and the decision of getting skim or lowfat milk is a harder one to make than the choice of the abortion. Not true. I will not go into the finer points of a family's decision of why or why not they chose abortion. As part of my belief in small government, I believe the decision belongs with the family. It is not my business and it is not the business of the government to regulate family choices.

Gay Rights
This one affects me personally. Again, like the abortion section, the government should not have a say as to who I fall in love with or deny me the same benefits that a heterosexual couple can receive. All that matters is that two consenting adults enter into this contract. We are not demanding that all heterosexual people are required to get gay-married. We are not demanding of anything of anyone else outside of equal recognition. And to this day, all we get is "The Bible says..." as the excuse that homosexual couples should not be allowed to be married. This is in violation of the First Amendment since it would be stating that this country is favoring Judeo-Christian beliefs.

Fiscal Responsibility
This is one that has always chaffed my hind. Our country is allowing itself to fall into debt in both Trade Balances and Budget. It is hard to stay ahead of the Trade Balance issue since you would have to manufacture goods that other countries would want. Americans are cheap ass tight wads when it comes to spending. Yet, at the same time, they have the trophy holder mentality. I have to have the best this or the most of that. Since American workers require a set level of pay, we then contract out portions of the work to third world or low-end first world countries. America, once a major player in the realm of televisions, textiles and farming has become more of an importer now...losing the ability to manufacture or improve on the existing goods. With more importing comes more trade imbalance.

The second half of this is a Balanced Budget. I cannot stand Republicans pushing for multiple wars at the same time as pushing for tax breaks for high income earners. I am for giving people a break in their taxes when we can. I am for war when the last options for peaceful resolution have failed. But you cannot have both. Modern wars use a lot of specialized equipment with servicemen who require even more training than before. This costs money. To be brutally honest, it costs a shit-ton of money. So, if we are going to wage wars, we need to keep taxes higher to pay for them. At least until we can get back to the days of President Clinton's budget surplus.


But, that ends my rant for today.

Transportation Models

I always thought that Operations and Production Management was a neat side item to my IT degree. The things you can do once you know the algorithm to solve a problem is always pretty neat. But, I have prepared a lesson on how using Transportation Models.

Transportation Model Lesson

Weekly Weight Goals

Well... I stepped on the scales today. I weighed in at 247.6 with a BMI of 30.4(Obese). From last week's weigh-in of 248.8, this was a 0.32% weight loss. My goal was to hit 22.5 BMI by the end of December, which means I need to weigh a little under 183.7 by December 31st. To meet that goal, I need to lose about 1.25 pounds per week. I did barely meet that goal, and while the weight loss was in a good direction, I do need to step up my game a little.

A New Year...

Well.. 2011 has rolled around. Not much to say about it outside of trying a few resolutions, which are subject to modification, deletion or addition as the year goes on.

#1. I will get at least 7 hours of sleep a night.

This means that on workdays, I must be in bed by 11. I am very bad about this with rolling into bed late, sometimes after midnight. Then I wake up groggy, weary and annoyed. This also has negative impacts on health. So, By getting sleep, I am hoping to make sure I don't get sick and hopefully have some energy to work out once in a while.

#2. I must ensure I take my gout medication every day.

This is very important. I am very bad about doing stuff in a routine. Gout causes a lot of pain when it strikes, and it pretty much hobbles me for a month or two. This means that I can't exercise since any movement of my feet is excruciating and I wind up just sitting or laying down all day. So, if I take my medication for it, I hopefully will not have another attack which should make me a happier person in addition to being able to do things.

#3. Commit myself to losing weight.

Exercise is very difficult. Due to gout attacks tearing up the joints in my feet, walking can be uncomfortable at times, but running is pretty painful. This means that rugby is permanently out for me. I have found I can still participate in hockey since I do not need to be able to run and the tarsal joints don't get flexed. But I am so out of shape right now, I will have to start slow with walking and focusing on dietary changes. Eventually as I start to lose weight, I can consider biking or other low foot-impact exercises.

Currently, my current BMI is 30.6 which is classified as Obese. I want to be at 22.5 by the end of December which is in the upper portion of the Normal category. To achieve this, The quantitative portion of this goal is that I need to lose roughly 0.75 BMI points per month. This should be completely doable since it equates to less than 3 pounds per month.

#4. Start yoga.

I want to get into yoga for multiple reasons. The first is that I need the stress relief. The stress is bad for health and weight. This is especially true since I am a stress eater. But also, with me eventually getting back into hockey, I need the flexibility as a goaltender. I have become so inflexible over the years, it is not even funny.

There we have it. These are my 4 main goals for the year.