NHL Elo Ratings a/o 11/24/2011

With the holidays, I got a bit behind on getting my numbers figured up. But I finally got them finished up.

For this week, I have to say "Yah". Washington moved up to 11th, which is good seeing them moving in the right direction again.

This week's biggest winner goes to Florida. They moved up 49.66 points this week with their 3 victories against Pittsburgh, New Jersey and the NY Rangers. The flip side of that was Chicago's poor performance resulting in a loss of 55.51 points. Their defeats by Calgary, Edmonton and San Jose caused them to drop from 2nd to 16th in one week.

Honorable Mention goes to Columbus. They not only moved out of the last place slot where they have sat almost all season, they actually beat one of the teams that was in the Top 5 when they went up against Nashville.

Rank	Elo Rating	Team	Change from 11/17/2011
1	303.61	Minnesota	+29.81
2	302.80	Boston	+39.60
3	294.79	Florida	+49.66
4	273.34	Phoenix	+7.44
5	272.31	Pittsburgh	-6.18
6	271.31	NY Rangers	-36.54
7	271.19	Philadelphia	-17.19
8	265.90	San Jose	+17.50
9	265.14	St Louis	-0.30
10	262.88	Detroit	+42.67
11	253.48	Washington	+16.32
12	252.42	New Jersey	+12.20
13	248.92	Dallas	-1.63
14	243.80	Los Angeles	+0.17
15	239.02	Buffalo	-0.83
16	236.84	Chicago	-55.51
17	236.63	Montreal	+20.05
18	235.80	Nashville	-39.59
19	235.20	Edmonton	+20.10
20	232.66	Ottawa	-1.45
21	232.57	Vancouver	+30.13
22	230.44	Toronto	+13.06
23	206.76	Winnipeg	+22.19
24	204.40	Tampa Bay	-32.13
25	184.65	Carolina	+30.56
26	173.67	Calgary	-11.62
27	157.23	Columbus	+46.25
28	150.20	NY Islanders	-18.57
29	135.92	Anaheim	-23.32
30	134.10	Colorado	-31.97

NHL Elo Ratings a/o 11/17/2011

In continuing with the Elo ratings for the NHL, my personal favorite of Washington continues their decline from their once vaunted 1st place. The NY Rangers have actually taken the #1 slot for this week. For those of you familiar with the Elo system, the specifics I am using are Starting Value = 200, Floor = 0, K-value = 32(for ratings less than 2100), Results (1=win, 0=loss, 0.5=overtime/shootout loss).

Rank	Elo Rating	Team	Change from 11/11/2011
1	307.85	NY Rangers	+9.91
2	292.35	Chicago	+28.30
3	288.38	Philadelphia	+45.75
4	278.49	Pittsburgh	-13.91
5	275.39	Nashville	+30.26
6	273.80	Minnesota	+17.08
7	265.90	Phoenix	+15.11
8	265.44	St Louis	+51.46
9	263.20	Boston	+43.43
10	250.55	Dallas	-35.39
11	248.40	San Jose	-31.13
12	245.13	Florida	-16.40
13	243.63	Los Angeles	+45.96
14	240.22	New Jersey	+20.17
15	239.85	Buffalo	-20.39
16	237.16	Washington	-40.25
17	236.53	Tampa Bay	-18.37
18	234.11	Ottawa	+51.70
19	220.21	Detroit	-14.85
20	217.38	Toronto	-32.00
21	216.58	Montreal	+12.30
22	215.10	Edmonton	-31.87
23	202.44	Vancouver	+1.64
24	185.29	Calgary	+1.06
25	184.57	Winnipeg	+21.26
26	168.77	NY Islanders	-4.69
27	166.07	Colorado	-40.96
28	159.24	Anaheim	-24.80
29	154.09	Carolina	-3.96
30	110.98	Columbus	+15.57

NHL Elo Ratings a/o 11/11

Unfortunately after a couple of losses, my Washington Captitals have lost their 1st place rating, but at least they are still near the top. Below is the complete Elo rating list of the NHL as of 11/11/2011:

Rank	Score	Team
1	297.94	NY Rangers
2	292.40	Pittsburgh
3	285.94	Dallas
4	279.53	San Jose
5	277.41	Washington
6	264.05	Chicago
7	261.53	Florida
8	260.24	Buffalo
9	256.72	Minnesota
10	254.90	Tampa Bay
11	250.79	Phoenix
12	249.38	Toronto
13	246.97	Edmonton
14	245.13	Nashville
15	242.63	Philadelphia
16	235.06	Detroit
17	220.05	New Jersey
18	219.77	Boston
19	213.98	St Louis
20	207.03	Colorado
21	204.28	Montreal
22	200.80	Vancouver
23	197.67	Los Angeles
24	184.23	Calgary
25	184.04	Anaheim
26	182.41	Ottawa
27	173.46	NY Islanders
28	163.31	Winnipeg
29	158.05	Carolina
30	95.41	Columbus

Rankings in the NHL

I have decided to try ranking NHL teams by using the Elo Rating System. It is a system that is very common in giving a rating to individuals competing in 2-person events like chess. I tried it with football a few years back, but it wasn't as successful as I was hoping since football has so few games per season. I figure the NHL plays enough games to get a good statistical sampling to more accurately rate teams.

I did use a variation of the Elo system though. All teams started the year at a score of 200 points. The K-Value I used is the traditional 32 points(for teams under 2100). The change I made though is that if a team loses in an overtime situation, they do not lose points for that game while the winning team still earns points.

So far, for the games up through 10/19/2011, here are my rankings:

Top 5
1. Washington (287.79)
2. Colorado (259.89)
3. Detroit (259.73)
4. Toronto (257.26)
5. Dallas (253.30)

Bottom 5
1. Columbus (129.40)
2. Ottawa (147.99)
3. Tampa Bay (168.18)
4. San Jose (168.88)
5. Montreal (169.44)